Global Softwood Supply to Grow 0.5% Annually Through 2035, Below Demand

Softwood Supply Growth to Lag Demand

A new market analysis, the Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook, projects that global softwood supply will increase by approximately 0.5% annually through 2035. This growth rate is expected to fall short of the increasing demand for critical materials like construction timber, packaging, and biomass.

The findings, compiled by Håkan Ekström of Global Wood Trends and Glen O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen, are part of a comprehensive four-part report. This report examines potential future softwood sources and the various factors that could limit production expansion across North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and the global market.

Regional Constraints on Production

Global softwood roundwood supply has remained largely flat since 2000, despite overall roundwood production continuing to rise. After reaching an all-time high in 2021, supply in 2025 returned close to its 25-year average.

Regional trends vary significantly: North American supply has decreased by almost 20% since 2000, while Europe, Russia, and the rest of the world each saw an increase of about 18%. Looking ahead, the US South shows the greatest potential for increased softwood roundwood supply due to abundant timber resources and harvesting below biological growth.

However, labor shortages, infrastructure limitations, and the investment required for expansion are expected to slow this growth. In Canada, after several years of declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia, a period of stabilization and modest recovery is anticipated, though supply is unlikely to return to previous levels.

Europe faces tighter constraints, with many forests already harvested near sustainable biological limits, and further growth restricted by sustainability policies, forest protection measures, and climate-related damage. The base scenario for Europe predicts little overall change, with declines in Central Europe and the Baltics offset by growth in regions like the Nordics.

Asia-Pacific and China's Evolving Role

Russia possesses substantial underused softwood resources, but political risks, market-access restrictions, infrastructure limitations, and investment requirements are expected to keep significant volumes untapped. In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains competitive.

However, the area dedicated to softwood plantations has shown little change over the past decade, with investment increasingly shifting towards hardwood plantations. Productivity gains are expected to support only modest growth in softwood supply, rather than a major expansion.

Japan and New Zealand face lower availability primarily due to uneven age-class structures in their plantations. Demand, driven by US housing, European construction, and China’s property market, will continue to be a significant market factor.

China, in particular, could demonstrate how tighter supply affects trade flows: as log availability in Asia-Pacific becomes more constrained and Chinese sawmilling costs increase, the country is likely to import more lumber instead of logs.

Implications for Asian Buyers

Asian buyers, particularly those sourcing for construction timber and packaging, should anticipate increasing real prices and potential challenges in securing competitively priced softwood logs through 2035.

China's projected shift towards importing more lumber rather than logs, driven by local processing costs and constrained Asia-Pacific log availability, may redirect regional trade flows and affect pricing across other Asian markets. Procurement teams should explore long-term supply contracts or consider alternative materials to mitigate these impacts.

Climate change and geopolitical developments add further uncertainty, with factors like storms and wildfires affecting forest growth and international relations potentially redirecting trade flows for softwood products.