FSC, Chatham House: Biofuel Mandates Threaten Asian Forests, Food
New research projects a global footprint of 68 million hectares for biofuel feedstocks by 2030, raising concerns for food markets and forests in Asia, including India and Indonesia.
Global Land Pressure from Biofuel Expansion
New government policies aimed at expanding biofuel use could significantly increase demand for land, according to research from the UK-based independent policy institute Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).
By 2030, these new mandates are projected to create an additional 36 million hectares of pressure on cropland globally, an area comparable to the size of Germany. This expansion contributes to an estimated total global land footprint of 68 million hectares dedicated to biofuel feedstock production by 2030.
In 2023, approximately 32 million hectares were already utilized for this purpose, with an additional 20 million hectares anticipated by 2030 even without the introduction of new mandates.
Regional Impacts and Supply Chain Risks
The increasing demand for biofuel feedstocks is set to affect food and agricultural markets, particularly in key Asian economies. India is already directing larger volumes of food crops, including maize and 5.2 million tonnes of rice, towards ethanol production.
In Indonesia, a policy aiming for a 50% palm-oil biodiesel blend is expected to reshape global palm-oil demand and trade patterns; the country has already implemented restrictions on some feedstock exports to secure domestic supplies.
This growing competition for land and crops risks driving up food prices and intensifying threats to forests and biodiversity, either through direct conversion for new plantations or by displacing other agricultural activities.
Recommendations for Sustainable Sourcing and Policy
Chatham House and the FSC emphasize the need for strong safeguards to prevent biofuel expansion from causing long-term land-use change or forest destruction. Dr. Subhra Bhattacharjee, Director General of FSC, highlighted the importance of responsibly sourcing feedstocks to avoid forest loss.
The research recommends that governments prioritize energy efficiency, renewable power, and electrification where economically and technically feasible. It also advises limiting higher biofuel mandates to supplies derived from improved yields, existing or degraded land, wastes, residues, or advanced biofuels.
Additionally, strengthening land-use controls, supply chain traceability, and deforestation-free requirements are crucial.
Implications for Asia's Material Procurement
For procurement teams and specifiers within Asia's building materials, interiors, and FF&E sectors, these findings underscore the critical need to verify material origins. As global demand for agricultural feedstocks escalates, the risk of unsustainable land conversion for raw materials such as timber, palm oil derivatives, or other bio-based components increases.
Companies sourcing wood products or materials containing palm oil from regions like Indonesia and India should enhance their due diligence.
Prioritizing suppliers with robust traceability systems and certifications, such as FSC, ensures responsible forest management and helps mitigate supply chain risks related to deforestation and compliance with evolving sustainability standards.
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